Is it Equity, or is it Memorex?

What is equity? Well I consulted my trusty dictionary and one of its meanings is “the value of a property in excess of claims against it”. Fair enough, but what prompted me to look it up? Well, I was having a discussion with a fellow real estate professional who was rather proud of himself. He had a client who had bought an “investment” property this past summer, who was having a little trouble re-selling it for a profit after upgrading (and spending too much on) the kitchen. So the agent advised, and the client complied, re-financing to take out the “equity”. Do you see where I am going here? After marketing the home for sale for several months no one had bought the property at its asking price which suggests it may have been overpriced. Let’s be honest, in the overheated and now somewhat cooler, real estate market we are experiencing here in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area, the chances of buying a home in summer of 2006 and flipping it for a profit within 6 months are very slim. So what was wrong with re-financing? Well the problem is that the buyer is releasing equity that does not really exist. Sure, you can find a lender, and a helpful appraiser, to value the home a little on the high side so that they can grant you a loan. In some cases, we will get to those later, such helpfulness borders on the criminal. However, lenders will usually bend over backwards to loan you money, it is their business after all, but they will be the first to cry “foul” when you can no longer make the payments, or the property goes into foreclosure because its value has dipped below the size of the loan. And that is the problem. If there was real equity in the property, it would have sold. Now that you have taken every last penny out of the home, you cannot endure any drop in property values that the Arizona real estate market may suffer in general.

Now, what of the actual criminal activity I mentioned earlier, I hear you cry. As houses stagnate on the market, sellers and agents start to get creative, and that is where the trouble begins. Usually, it ends in a criminal investigation into fraud, and a trip to the “grey-bar hotel”. The current crop of schemes and scams operate broadly as follows. It generally includes a buyer making an offer way above the asking price with the excess to be kicked back either for “repairs” or, in cash, under the table. It will involve, with varying degrees of complicity, a corrupt agent, lender, appraiser and likely title and escrow officer. A duped or criminal buyer, who very often does not even view the property and an unwitting, usually, seller who is unaware of the fraud being perpetrated, but may still be criminally liable.

The key factor in all these, and similar internet “Nigerian type” schemes is greed. Do not let greed blind you to the reality. These are difficult times in Arizona real estate. There are no quick fixes, no get out of jail free cards and no charitable angels paying big prices to get you out of a jam.

Remember, if it walks like a duck….

Phoenix Real Estate Predictions for 2007

Good Grief! Another New Year sneaked up on me and took me by surprise. Welcome, 2007, I wonder what you have in store for us all. Hopefully, happiness, good health and prosperity to keep you in the manner to which you have become accustomed. I no longer ask for warm, sunny days as that is a given here in the Valley of the Sun.

So what will the new year bring to the greater Phoenix area real estate market? Of course, no one truly knows the answer to that, but we can make some informed guesses.

Firstly, as a nation, the economy is robust; interest rates remain low as does the unemployment rate, which is all good. The balance of power in Washington D.C. is changing and commentary in that direction is beyond the scope of this blog, but I suspect that for most politicos it will be business as usual.

What effect will all this have on the Phoenix, Scottsdale Metropolitan area? I still see 2007 as a slow year in terms of sales and a relatively flat one in terms of prices. We still need to recover from the massive (over?) building of 2005 and 2006. We have yet to pass on to real end users all those homes that were purchased by “investors” in that period. There are some communities where “investors” own between 50% to 75% of available homes. Believe me, they do not like leaving them vacant, nor do they like renting them out below cost. How long they will actually hold them is a game of steely nerves that we will monitor carefully in 2007. All the while, developers continue to churn out more properties that are able to be priced very competitively with current inventory. Remember, and I have said this before, those same builders that were selling homes, identical to yours, for $150,000 for a profit, three years ago, could do it again today if market forces demand it. Translation: if you can sell that home today for $225,000, then do so; do not squander that equity by being stubborn.

All is not gloom, however. The laws of supply and demand are very much in effect. Buyers have many options both in new and resale homes. Sellers do not have to sell their homes, but if they need to they must price accordingly. Too often, a stubborn seller is merely an expensive “re-owner”. You have that right, but don’t whine about it.

Remember also, now is a great time to trade up. Sure your house may be worth a little less, but the big house up the block is also worth a lot less. The actual cash differentials have closed making it easier to move up. Just be sure to sell your current home first.

Best wishes to all for the New Year.