Friday, June 13, 2008

Pricing Your Home in the AZ Real Estate Market


Competitive pricing has always been an important factor when selling your home. Now, more than ever, it is an essential component when marketing your home in the Valley of the Sun.

Traditionally, the summer has been a time when the real estate market begins to slow down in Phoenix, AZ. Partly due to snowbirds returning home, and partly due to our high temperatures which make us less inclined to search for a new home. However, and regular readers know that I am more realistic than I am wildly optimistic, I feel that this summer season is beginning to show some signs of life.

Recent FHA loan limit increases, coupled with dramatic price reductions across the board, have opened up the possibility of home ownership to a whole new bunch of people. Many of these folks thought their chance to become a homeowner had evaporated forever, but are now being presented with a second chance. Good for them.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you will likely be aware that many homes on the market are either R.E.O.S or "short sales". Let me explain. An R.E.O. (real estate owned) is a property that has been foreclosed upon and is now entirely owned by the bank. A "short sale" is where the current owner owes more than the home is worth and, in order to sell it, will ask the bank to forgive some of the debt in order to complete the sale.

For various reasons, many banks are dis-inclined to offer debt relief so, very often, the attempt to purchase a "short sale" ends in frustration I advise buyers that if they find a "short sale" that they like, by all means make an offer. However, as response times can be long, do not let it deter you from looking at other homes. In other words, if you find another home that suits your needs, do not pass it up whilst waiting for a response that may never come. It is a simple matter to rescind an offer before it has been accepted.

R.E.O.s, on the other hand, are an excellent source for the home purchaser. I doubt that you will find a more motivated seller (a much-abused and cliched term) than a bank. They have no desire, whatsoever, to own the home and best of all, they are emotionally detached from the property.

I have been tracking one home in an upscale market that started out very well priced. Within in a month it went from "fair price", to "somewhat of a bargain", to "that seems cheap", to "is there something wrong with it?", to "sold!" A successful result occasioned by a combination of a smart realtor and an astute bank ending with a happy buyer.

Recently, I have also been seeing some spectacular reductions in the million dollar range. Some clients have even asked me whether prices are still crashing. In my opinion prices are flat to slightly soft. What we are seeing is overpriced homes, some of which have been on the market for a long time, getting introduced to reality. I see many homes priced at, or above, $1,000,000. That in reality are worth around $850,000. The owners hope against hope that some rube, preferably a cash buyer, will miraculously appear and fall so helplessly in love with their home that they must buy it. Meanwhile, back on planet earth, few buyers pay cash and there is a person called an appraiser who has to share your opinion of the price, before the bank will part with its money; so, I think you know the ending to this little story.

It seems like a good time to buy a home, or trade up to a larger home. Truthfully, no-one knows where prices will go and this is an election year, but it is certainly a better market for buyers than the past few years.

Friday, June 06, 2008

Good News in Phoenix Real Estate

At last, some good news for the Phoenix real estate market? Well, yes, but...

As I write this article, in the dying days of May, it seems that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel; and I do not believe it is a train coming towards us!

It has been reported, on a nation-wide basis, that existing home sales in February, 2008, actually rose. Something that has not occurred in seven months. So that gives us one reason for cautious optimism.

Also, the weakening of the U.S. dollar is not all bad news. It has made homes here in the United States a very attractive proposition for overseas buyers, and we have noticed a sizable increase in inquiries. Particularly from our neighbors in the north, many of whom seek retirement homes here in the Phoenix area, as a respite from the frigid temperatures that Canada often endures.

Locally, the news is a mixed bag depending on your geographical location. Carefree lived up to its name, reporting a median price 6.7% higher than last year, at $944,000. At the other end of the scale, Queen Creek saw a 19% drop in median prices. Why the disparity? Queen Creek is an entry-level community that appealed to a lot of first-time buyers, and "investors", that have been affected by the whole sub-prime mess. Consequently, the level of foreclosures and short-sales, plus the abandonment by said 'investors' has, naturally, had a detrimental effect on prices. Hopefully, this year will see these homes absorbed by real end-users to bring some level of stability back to the market.

Conversely, Carefree is an extremely upmarket, witness the median price, mostly retirement community that has emerged relatively unscathed by the vagaries of the real estate world. The reported increase of 6.7%, on the back of just 70 sales in 2007, reflects the fact that wealthy retirees, or snow-birders, who did not have to sell, are able to ride out the rough times. Also, wealthy buyers are able to pay higher prices for the quality that Carefree provides.

Interestingly, neighboring Cave Creek reported a drop of 4.7% in 2007 to $505,000. The reasons for this, I believe, are a little more nuanced. For reporting purposes zip code 85331 is used for Cave Creek. It does not make a distinction between houses actually in Phoenix, generally south of Carefree Highway, that share the zip code by post office whim. Home prices in "actual" Cave Creek have been quite resilient, but the statistics have been skewed slightly by the "not real" Cave Creek sales.

To sum up, things are starting to look up and I think 2008 will set us back on a path to normalcy, such as it is in real estate.

Buyers are timidly emerging, so sellers remember to price your home like 2008, not 2006, and all should be well.